 &MODEL
 NLIST   =           1,
 NSTEP   =        2000,
 EPSI    =  1.0000000E-07,
 WGHT    =   1.000000    ,
 NOBS    =         120,
 NVAXZ   =           9,
 NVAX    =           4,
 NORDER  =           2,
 NVAZ    =           0,
 NLAMZ   =           0,
 NLAMY   =           1,
 NLAMX   =           3,
 NSCALE  =           1,
 NEXPY   =           0,
 NRES    =           0,
 NCOR    =           0,
 NCOV    =           0,
 VARNAME = BC4+A1A2P,
 NVARIANT        =           5
 /
 &AUTOCOR
 RHO     = 2*0.000000000000000E+000  ,
 PI      = 2*0.990000000000000       ,
 NTPI    = 2*1,
 MATFILE = R1.in                                                                           R2.in                                     
                                       
 /
 &YBOXCOX
 VLY     =  0.000000000000000E+000,
 NTLY    =           1,
 NUMLXY  =           0
 /
 &XBOXCOX
 NUMX    =           1,           2,           3,           8, 46*0,
 NUMLX   = 2*1,           2,           3, 46*0,
 VLX     = 10*0.000000000000000E+000  ,
 NTLX    = 3*1, 7*0
 /
 &YXZDATA
 YXZFILE = CanadaNew.in                                                                    ,
 YXZFMT  = (5e15.5)                                                                        
 /

VARIABLE       MINIMUM         MEAN          MAXIMUM   NULL OBS.      SCALE
DEPENDENT
TOTFLOW     0.2577000D+04  0.1476588D+06  0.2736000D+07     0     0.1000000D-05
INDEPENDENT
POP         0.8591300D+05  0.5297039D+06  0.2802800D+07     0     0.1000000D-05
REVE        0.3698300D+04  0.4258776D+04  0.4808200D+04     0     0.1000000D-02
LANGFR      0.5600000D+01  0.7329333D+02  0.9990000D+02     0     0.1000000D+00
UTIL5       0.4353900D+00  0.9282911D+00  0.2991400D+01     0     0.1000000D+01
CONSTANT    0.1000000D+01  0.1000000D+01  0.1000000D+01     0     0.1000000D+01


MRS of X(l) with respect to X(k) - at the sample means
===================================================================================================================================
        X(k) POP         REVE        LANGFR      UTIL5       CONSTANT  
X(l)
===================================================================================================================================

POP          0.1000D+01  0.4122D+03  0.4719D+04 -0.9756D+06 -0.3901D+07

REVE         0.2426D-02  0.1000D+01  0.1145D+02 -0.2367D+04 -0.9464D+04

LANGFR       0.2119D-03  0.8734D-01  0.1000D+01 -0.2067D+03 -0.8267D+03

UTIL5       -0.1025D-05 -0.4225D-03 -0.4837D-02  0.1000D+01  0.3999D+01

CONSTANT    -0.2563D-06 -0.1057D-03 -0.1210D-02  0.2501D+00  0.1000D+01


INITIAL ESTIMATES

             LAM    PARAMETER      STD-ERROR        STUDENT-T    GRADIENT       DERIV.Y         ELAST.Y
                                                                                DERIV.E(Y)      ELAST.E(Y)


POP           X1  0.1716536D+01  0.1506195D+00     11.3965044 -0.1564938D-09  0.4784968D+00      1.7165356
                                                                              0.4489654D+00      1.7165356

REVE          X1  0.5688940D+01  0.1834997D+01      3.1002449  0.2593639D-09  0.1972450D+03      5.6889403
                                                                              0.1890671D+00      5.6889403

LANGFR        X2  0.1120922D+01  0.1499505D+00      7.4752774  0.3283866D-09  0.2258241D+04      1.1209218
                                                                              0.2880115D-01      1.1209218

UTIL5         X3 -0.2934865D+01  0.2200548D+00    -13.3369731 -0.3730906D-10 -0.4668350D+06     -2.9348653
                                                                             -0.6768115D+00     -2.9348653

CONSTANT      X0 -0.1264257D+02  0.2637368D+01     -4.7936326  0.1786359D-09 -0.1866787D+07    -12.6425710
                                                                             -0.1816705D+01    -12.6425710

VAR(W)            0.8421880D+00  0.1087260D+00      7.7459667  0.0000000D+00

INITIAL VALUES
 
RHO1           0.0000000D+00
RHO2           0.0000000D+00
PI1            0.9900000D+00
PI2            0.9900000D+00
 
LAM(Y)         0.0000000D+00
LAM(X1)        0.0000000D+00
LAM(X2)        0.0000000D+00
LAM(X3)        0.0000000D+00


LOG-LIKELIHOOD =  0.2280842D+03

NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS              =            120

PEARSON-R2(E) (unadjusted)          =         0.6974
PEARSON-R2(E) (adjusted for D.F.)   =         0.6869

PSEUDO-R2(L)  (unadjusted)          =         0.6413
PSEUDO-R2(L)  (adjusted for D.F.)   =         0.6288

PROBABILITY of Y to be at the limit =         0.0000
MEAN VALUE of E(Y)                  =  0.1436974D+00

MEAN of residual W                  =  0.1253699D-11
VARIANCE of residual W              =  0.8421880D+00
95% CONFIDENCE INTERVAL for residual W
Lower Bound = -0.1798708D+01   Upper Bound =  0.1798708D+01




initialization cards for control routine follow - -  id card - no. parameters , no. steps , step size 
minimization tolerance - starting values of parameters - relative uncertainties of parameters (error estimates) -  
and starting direction  (relative parameter increments for 1st step)
identification line
         8      2000   0.1E+01   0.1E-06
  0.00000E+00  0.00000E+00  0.45951E+01  0.45951E+01  0.00000E+00  0.00000E+00  0.00000E+00  0.00000E+00
  0.10000E+01  0.10000E+01  0.10000E+01  0.10000E+01  0.10000E+01  0.10000E+01  0.10000E+01  0.10000E+01
  0.00000E+00  0.00000E+00  0.00000E+00  0.00000E+00  0.00000E+00  0.00000E+00  0.00000E+00  0.00000E+00

first entry to fcn , parameters of current step follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2280842137D+03  0.00000D+00  0.00000D+00  0.45951D+01  0.45951D+01  0.00000D+00  0.00000D+00  0.00000D+00  0.00000D+00


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry     9  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2607567168D+03  0.48593D+00  0.68708D+00  0.45951D+01  0.45951D+01  0.40768D-01  0.39776D+00  0.64237D-01 -0.47188D+00


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    15  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2610650703D+03  0.49930D+00  0.69254D+00  0.45951D+01  0.45951D+01  0.30082D-01  0.40205D+00  0.64720D-01 -0.47872D+00


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    18  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2618532740D+03  0.50279D+00  0.67110D+00  0.45953D+01  0.45951D+01 -0.53941D-02  0.44609D+00  0.70358D-01 -0.54644D+00


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    23  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2644258399D+03  0.62623D+00  0.51961D+00  0.45963D+01  0.45954D+01  0.98480D-02  0.52062D+00  0.76395D-01 -0.76567D+00


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    27  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2658777225D+03  0.66016D+00  0.47546D+00  0.45977D+01  0.45958D+01 -0.31846D-02  0.38685D+00  0.81613D-01 -0.10163D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    31  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2666351686D+03  0.66259D+00  0.48111D+00  0.46110D+01  0.46005D+01 -0.98602D-02  0.33742D+00 -0.26471D+00 -0.11621D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    35  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2675821780D+03  0.69607D+00  0.46898D+00  0.46600D+01  0.46218D+01 -0.79304D-02  0.27188D+00 -0.79586D-02 -0.12930D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    39  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2683435562D+03  0.78412D+00  0.40042D+00  0.47544D+01  0.46774D+01 -0.23709D-02  0.30717D+00 -0.46694D-01 -0.15441D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    42  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2686469481D+03  0.80259D+00  0.40407D+00  0.49226D+01  0.47903D+01 -0.92196D-02  0.30904D+00 -0.39089D-01 -0.18352D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    45  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2688908344D+03  0.84664D+00  0.37702D+00  0.51511D+01  0.49627D+01 -0.11581D-03  0.26556D+00 -0.34917D-01 -0.23891D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    49  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2693411350D+03  0.85523D+00  0.37312D+00  0.56581D+01  0.53986D+01  0.61540D-02  0.29365D+00 -0.76714D-01 -0.34945D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    52  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2696806990D+03  0.78836D+00  0.40901D+00  0.57501D+01  0.55263D+01 -0.48659D-02  0.29921D+00 -0.64155D-01 -0.36796D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    55  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2696997201D+03  0.78490D+00  0.41106D+00  0.58152D+01  0.55880D+01 -0.24261D-02  0.28690D+00 -0.69861D-01 -0.38126D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    56  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2697011610D+03  0.78599D+00  0.40957D+00  0.58404D+01  0.56159D+01 -0.14625D-02  0.28878D+00 -0.70952D-01 -0.38219D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    58  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2697040852D+03  0.79226D+00  0.40560D+00  0.60246D+01  0.58144D+01 -0.18749D-02  0.28788D+00 -0.67531D-01 -0.38714D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    61  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2697160168D+03  0.78372D+00  0.41061D+00  0.68058D+01  0.66886D+01 -0.37760D-02  0.28892D+00 -0.80213D-01 -0.39125D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    64  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2697262734D+03  0.78544D+00  0.41049D+00  0.75837D+01  0.75653D+01 -0.98824D-03  0.28996D+00 -0.60457D-01 -0.38072D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    67  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2697293102D+03  0.78686D+00  0.40932D+00  0.81275D+01  0.81767D+01 -0.16217D-02  0.28726D+00 -0.74323D-01 -0.37720D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    70  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2697309504D+03  0.78521D+00  0.40992D+00  0.89274D+01  0.90692D+01 -0.21224D-02  0.28760D+00 -0.67279D-01 -0.37885D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    73  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2697318828D+03  0.78608D+00  0.40988D+00  0.97748D+01  0.10012D+02 -0.16131D-02  0.28830D+00 -0.70938D-01 -0.37973D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    76  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2697322326D+03  0.78598D+00  0.40960D+00  0.10765D+02  0.11119D+02 -0.19148D-02  0.28779D+00 -0.69418D-01 -0.37921D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    78  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2697323593D+03  0.78587D+00  0.40991D+00  0.11588D+02  0.12036D+02 -0.17135D-02  0.28809D+00 -0.70207D-01 -0.37934D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    80  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2697324135D+03  0.78602D+00  0.40967D+00  0.12657D+02  0.13230D+02 -0.18332D-02  0.28793D+00 -0.69825D-01 -0.37935D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    82  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2697324309D+03  0.78590D+00  0.40984D+00  0.13403D+02  0.14062D+02 -0.17613D-02  0.28802D+00 -0.70023D-01 -0.37934D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    84  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2697324392D+03  0.78598D+00  0.40973D+00  0.14608D+02  0.15407D+02 -0.18017D-02  0.28798D+00 -0.69925D-01 -0.37933D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    86  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2697324414D+03  0.78593D+00  0.40980D+00  0.15157D+02  0.16020D+02 -0.17779D-02  0.28800D+00 -0.69978D-01 -0.37934D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    89  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2697324428D+03  0.78596D+00  0.40976D+00  0.16662D+02  0.17699D+02 -0.17899D-02  0.28799D+00 -0.69953D-01 -0.37933D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    91  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2697324431D+03  0.78594D+00  0.40979D+00  0.17159D+02  0.18254D+02 -0.17823D-02  0.28800D+00 -0.69969D-01 -0.37934D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    94  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2697324433D+03  0.78595D+00  0.40978D+00  0.18786D+02  0.20069D+02 -0.17856D-02  0.28800D+00 -0.69962D-01 -0.37933D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    96  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2697324433D+03  0.78594D+00  0.40979D+00  0.19275D+02  0.20615D+02 -0.17835D-02  0.28800D+00 -0.69966D-01 -0.37934D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    98  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2697324434D+03  0.78594D+00  0.40978D+00  0.21648D+02  0.23262D+02 -0.17847D-02  0.28800D+00 -0.69963D-01 -0.37933D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry   100  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2697324434D+03  0.78594D+00  0.40978D+00  0.21266D+02  0.22837D+02 -0.17840D-02  0.28800D+00 -0.69965D-01 -0.37934D+01



the function (fcn) has not improved by    0.10000D-06 after 3 steps which include a minimum - - -


therefore the run has been terminated
  -0.2697324434D+03  0.78594D+00  0.40978D+00  0.21266D+02  0.22837D+02 -0.17840D-02  0.28800D+00 -0.69965D-01 -0.37934D+01



all numbers of last entry refer to final pt. of run


the lowest value of the function (fcn) was  -0.2697324434D+03 for entry  100 - - x(i) follows
  0.78594E+00  0.40978E+00  0.21266E+02  0.22837E+02 -0.17840E-02  0.28800E+00 -0.69965E-01 -0.37934E+01



run statistics follow - -

 nfcn=  100 nst=   32


MRS of X(l) with respect to X(k) - at the sample means
===================================================================================================================================
        X(k) POP         REVE        LANGFR      UTIL5       CONSTANT  
X(l)
===================================================================================================================================

POP          0.1000D+01  0.2085D+03  0.3386D+04 -0.8125D+05 -0.2471D+07

REVE         0.4797D-02  0.1000D+01  0.1624D+02 -0.3898D+03 -0.1186D+05

LANGFR       0.2953D-03  0.6156D-01  0.1000D+01 -0.2399D+02 -0.7298D+03

UTIL5       -0.1231D-04 -0.2566D-02 -0.4168D-01  0.1000D+01  0.3042D+02

CONSTANT    -0.4046D-06 -0.8435D-04 -0.1370D-02  0.3288D-01  0.1000D+01


FINAL ESTIMATES

             LAM    PARAMETER      STD-ERROR        STUDENT-T      STUDENT-T    GRADIENT       DERIV.Y         ELAST.Y
                                   (CONDIT.)        (CONDIT.)      (CONDIT.)                   DERIV.E(Y)      ELAST.E(Y)
                                                    (PAR = 0)      (PAR = 1)

POP           X1  0.3393105D-01  0.4975959D-01      0.6818997                -0.1551631D-07  0.4300804D+00      1.5428490
                                 0.2576709D-02     13.1683643                                0.3971755D+00      1.4609699

REVE          X1  0.2281072D+00  0.2856588D+00      0.7985305                -0.3999980D-08  0.8965172D+02      2.5857350
                                 0.1379671D+00      1.6533449                                0.9167372D+02      2.5766461

LANGFR        X2  0.9557454D+00  0.1858862D+01      0.5141561                -0.4308188D-09  0.1456363D+04      0.7228942
                                 0.3009086D+00      3.1761988                                0.2172836D+04      0.7294114

UTIL5         X3 -0.1621778D+00  0.3002967D+00     -0.5400586                 0.2732444D-10 -0.3494412D+05     -0.2196842
                                 0.9516814D-01     -1.7041188                               -0.3141583D+06     -0.9562479

CONSTANT      X0 -0.7047023D+01  0.9624058D+01     -0.7322299                -0.1142966D-09 -0.1062887D+07     -7.1982621
                                 0.4997344D+01     -1.4101535                               -0.1096826D+07     -7.1751174

VAR(W)            0.2840604D+00  0.2668012D+00      1.0646892                 0.0000000D+00
                                 0.4596696D-01      6.1796650
 
RHO1      (E)     0.6561031D+00  0.1253828D+00      5.2327979                 0.4419785D-03
                                 0.1129623D+00      5.8081616
RHO2      (E)     0.3882893D+00  0.1205334D+00      3.2214256                 0.4989246D-03
                                 0.1109703D+00      3.4990374
PI1       (E)     0.1000000D+01  0.4994001D+00      2.0024024      0.0000000  0.4987711D+01
                                 0.4708874D+00      2.1236498      0.0000000
PI2       (E)     0.1000000D+01  0.6506735D+00      1.5368692      0.0000000  0.4548056D+01
                                 0.5873013D+00      1.7027036      0.0000000
 
LAM(Y)    (E)    -0.1784003D-02  0.4271943D-01     -0.0417609    -23.4503126  0.6012840D-04
LAM(X1)   (E)     0.2879970D+00  0.1186634D+00      2.4270072     -6.0001900 -0.2053788D-04
LAM(X2)   (E)    -0.6996513D-01  0.5453521D+00     -0.1282935     -1.9619711  0.1150873D-05
LAM(X3)   (E)    -0.3793358D+01  0.2422754D+01     -1.5657215     -1.9784748 -0.1386364D-05


LOG-LIKELIHOOD = -0.1388129D+04

NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS              =            120

PEARSON-R2(E) (unadjusted)          =         0.6844
PEARSON-R2(E) (adjusted for D.F.)   =         0.6490

PSEUDO-R2(L)  (unadjusted)          =         0.9659
PSEUDO-R2(L)  (adjusted for D.F.)   =         0.9621

PROBABILITY of Y to be at the limit =         0.0007
MEAN VALUE of E(Y)                  =  0.1562873D+06

MEAN of residual W                  = -0.7090578D-01
VARIANCE of residual W              =  0.2840604D+00
95% CONFIDENCE INTERVAL for residual W
Lower Bound = -0.1115533D+01   Upper Bound =  0.9737216D+00


CPU TIME:      4.03 sec
